Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
