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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still